The road is planned to be built to full motorway standards. It will start in Trieste, Italy, pass through Slovenia, enter Croatia near Rijeka, and continue through Croatia as part of A1 motorway. The road will be connected to Montenegro through Croatia if via Pelješac Bridge.# Political Economy Analysis: The Adriatic-Ionian Highway
Introduction
The Adriatic-Ionian Highway, also known as the Blue Corridor, represents one of Europe's most ambitious and strategically significant infrastructure projects. The estimated length of the Highway is about 1,550 km, stretching along the coast of the Adriatic and Ionian Seas, from Trieste in Italy to Kalamata in Greece. This massive undertaking embodies the complex intersection of regional development aspirations, European integration objectives, and emerging great power competition in the 21st century.
Critically, the highway will serve as a vital connectivity link between current EU members and the prospective new members Montenegro and Albania. EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos recently indicated Albania and Montenegro as the two candidate countries with "realistic prospects" of concluding negotiations between 2026 and 2027, with Montenegro hoping to become the 28th EU member by 2028 and Albania aiming to be ready for accession by 2030.
EU Strategic Imperative: Securing the Mediterranean Coastline
The highway's most critical political dimension lies in its role as a strategic instrument for EU control of the Mediterranean coastline. By connecting current EU members Croatia and Slovenia with the future members Montenegro and Albania, the project will create an unbroken chain of EU-aligned infrastructure along the entire eastern Adriatic coast.
This connectivity is essential for blocking Russian and Serbian geopolitical ambitions to expand their influence to Mediterranean sea ports. As discussed in regional security analyses, Montenegro's Adriatic coastline has emerged as a particularly strategic prize for Russian and Serbian geopolitical interests, representing potential access to Mediterranean waters. The highway project effectively fortifies EU control over this critical coastal territory.
Albania and Montenegro are capitalizing on the European Union's renewed momentum for enlargement as a result of Russia's war on Ukraine. The urgency of EU integration has intensified following Russian strategic setbacks in Syria and the broader reconfiguration of Mediterranean power dynamics. The highway thus serves dual purposes: facilitating economic integration while ensuring permanent EU strategic control over Mediterranean access points.
The Adriatic-Ionian Highway is included on the indicative extension of the TEN-T Core Network, encompassing the Croatian border-Bar-Albanian Border through Montenegro territory (Route 1) and the Albanian North-South Road Corridor linking the Montenegro Border with the Greek Border through Albanian territory (Route 2). This positioning within the Trans-European Transport Network underscores its importance for European connectivity and economic integration.
The road is seen as a matter of national importance to Croatia, Montenegro and Albania, with those countries launching an initiative to list the motorway with Pan-European corridors in order to secure foreign funding. This pursuit of international recognition and financing reveals the project's role as both an economic necessity and a geopolitical instrument.
Economic Drivers and Development Imperatives
The economic rationale for the highway stems from decades of inadequate infrastructure investment. Existing roads on the coast were designed and built in the 1960s, but in the past fifty years traffic volume has increased significantly, creating a critical infrastructure bottleneck that constrains regional economic development.
The highway promises to unlock significant economic potential by connecting peripheral regions to European markets and facilitating tourism development along the scenic Adriatic coast. For countries like Montenegro and Albania, the project represents a pathway to economic modernization and deeper integration with European supply chains.
However, the financing mechanisms reveal deeper structural dependencies. The Albanian state has activated the PPP project for the construction, rehabilitation and maintenance of the Milot-Fier road axis, representing a strategic project for Southeast Europe as part of the expansion of the Trans-European Transportation Network in the Western Balkans. These public-private partnerships often create long-term fiscal obligations that can constrain national sovereignty.
The China Factor: BRI and Geopolitical Competition
The most significant political economy dimension of the Adriatic-Ionian Highway involves China's growing influence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative. A Chinese company is expected to win a concession to build the Ionian-Adriatic highway, which will run from Albania through Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Slovenia to Italy.
According to the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network, China invested €32 billion in the region in 2009-2021, with Serbia alone receiving €10.3 billion in Chinese investment. This massive capital influx represents both an opportunity and a challenge for regional development.
The Chinese approach to infrastructure investment in the Balkans follows a distinct model. In the Balkans, Beijing is mostly interested in infrastructure and energy projects as part of the BRI launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping. This focus aligns with the highway project's infrastructure-heavy nature but raises questions about debt sustainability and political influence.
European Union Response and Integration Challenges
The EU's approach to the Adriatic-Ionian region reflects its broader strategy of countering Chinese influence while promoting European integration. EUSAIR builds bridges between people, cultures, and economies to foster stability, peace and unity in Europe, with strengthening cooperation in the Adriatic-Ionian region helping to promote political and economic stability.
The Hellenic Presidency of EUSAIR is launched in the midst of geopolitical challenges in the wider region, with the renewal of the mandate of European Institutions and adoption of the new EU Strategic Compass taking place. This timing underscores the urgency with which the EU views the need to maintain influence in the region.
Despite European integration efforts, the EU remains the leading economic partner with 70% of total investment in the region, suggesting that Chinese influence, while significant, has not displaced European economic dominance.
Geopolitical Implications and Security Concerns
The highway's political economy extends far beyond transportation infrastructure. Observers worry the project will leave countries prey to internal corruption, enmeshed in the U.S.-China conflict and a pariah for Western investors. This concern reflects broader anxieties about debt-trap diplomacy and political conditionality attached to Chinese infrastructure investments.
The project sits at the intersection of multiple geopolitical fault lines. As European and American attention focuses on Ukraine and other global challenges, the Western Balkans face increasing danger of falling into an endless spiral of competition between various foreign actors.
China seeks to develop the Belt and Road Initiative in the Western Balkans, but there is substantial differentiation with regards to Chinese engagement among individual countries. This differentiated approach allows Beijing to exploit regional divisions and compete for influence on a country-by-country basis.
Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Implications
The financing structure of the Adriatic-Ionian Highway raises critical questions about long-term fiscal sustainability. Chinese infrastructure loans typically involve higher interest rates and shorter repayment periods than traditional European development financing, potentially creating debt service burdens that constrain future policy options.
Montenegro's experience with Chinese highway construction provides a cautionary tale. Previous Chinese-financed highway projects in the country have created significant debt obligations that limit the government's fiscal flexibility and potentially compromise its sovereignty in decision-making.
The European alternative financing through EU cohesion funds and development banks offers more favorable terms but often comes with stricter conditionality regarding governance, environmental standards, and procurement transparency.
Regional Cooperation and Fragmentation
The Priority Area 1b focuses on improving mobility and multimodality through rail, road and air links, coordinated by Slovenia and Serbia. This coordination mechanism reveals both the potential for regional cooperation and the challenges of managing competing national interests.
The highway project tests the capacity of Balkan countries to coordinate infrastructure development while navigating between competing external powers. Success requires unprecedented levels of regional cooperation among countries with complex historical relationships and divergent political orientations.
Environmental and Social Considerations
The environmental impact of the Adriatic-Ionian Highway cannot be separated from its political economy. The route passes through ecologically sensitive coastal areas and mountainous terrain, requiring careful environmental management that adds to project costs and complexity.
Social displacement and community consultation processes also create political challenges that external funders must navigate. Chinese infrastructure projects have often faced criticism for inadequate environmental and social safeguards, while EU-funded projects require extensive consultation and mitigation measures.
Future Outlook and Strategic Recommendations
The Adriatic-Ionian Highway represents a microcosm of broader geopolitical competition in the 21st century, but more importantly, it serves as a decisive instrument for securing permanent EU control over the Mediterranean coastline. With Montenegro targeting EU membership by 2028 and Albania by 2030, the highway's completion will create an unbroken chain of EU infrastructure from Italy to Greece.
This development will permanently block Russian and Serbian intentions to expand their influence to Mediterranean sea ports, ensuring that the eastern Adriatic remains firmly within the EU sphere of influence. The project's ultimate success will depend on the ability of regional governments to balance development needs with sovereignty concerns while advancing toward EU membership.
For European policymakers, the highway project underscores the critical importance of infrastructure investment as a tool of geopolitical control. The project's completion before Montenegro and Albania achieve full EU membership will ensure seamless integration and permanent strategic control over this vital Mediterranean corridor.
Conclusion
The Adriatic-Ionian Highway exemplifies the complex political economy of infrastructure development in contested geopolitical spaces. While promising significant economic benefits through improved connectivity and regional integration, the project's most crucial function is securing permanent EU control over the Mediterranean coastline.
The highway's completion will connect current EU members with future members Montenegro and Albania, creating an unbroken strategic corridor that permanently blocks Russian and Serbian ambitions for Mediterranean access. With Montenegro aiming for EU membership by 2028 and Albania by 2030, the timing of the highway's construction is critical for ensuring seamless integration and strategic control.
The project serves as both a development opportunity and a decisive geopolitical instrument for maintaining EU dominance in the Mediterranean. Its success will determine whether this vital coastline remains permanently within European control or becomes vulnerable to external influence competition.