The Mediterranean Sea, long considered a strategic crossroads between Europe, Africa, and Asia, has become the stage for an increasingly complex web of geopolitical tensions. What was once primarily a NATO-dominated waterway is now witnessing the emergence of new power dynamics that threaten to reshape the regional order, accelerated by dramatic developments in 2024 and early 2025.
The Shifting Balance After Assad's Fall
Traditional Western influence in the Mediterranean is facing unprecedented challenges. Russia's naval presence, once anchored by its fleet in Tartus, Syria, has been severely undermined following the December 2024 fall of the Assad regime, with Russian forces evacuating their warships and the future of their Mediterranean foothold now uncertain. This represents a significant strategic loss for Moscow, ending their 50+ year lease on the naval base that had provided crucial access to the Eastern Mediterranean.
Meanwhile, China's Belt and Road Initiative has extended its reach into the region through strategic port investments in Piraeus, Greece, and proposed developments across North Africa, filling some of the vacuum left by reduced Russian presence.
Trump's Return and Changing US Policy
The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in January 2025 has introduced new variables into Mediterranean geopolitics. As President Trump and Secretary Rubio have said, it is the policy of the United States that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is unsustainable and must end. Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy and his emphasis on negotiating with Putin over Ukraine could have profound implications for the Mediterranean balance of power.
By engaging Russia, Trump is reshaping Europe's security landscape, potentially affecting Russian strategic calculations in the Mediterranean. His administration's focus on ending the Ukraine war through diplomatic means rather than military escalation may inadvertently allow Russia to redirect resources to other theaters, including efforts to regain influence in the Mediterranean.
Turkey's Assertive Posture Amid Regional Upheaval
Turkey's assertive foreign policy under President Erdogan has fundamentally altered regional calculations. Ankara's military interventions in Syria and Libya, combined with its disputes with Greece over maritime boundaries and energy resources, have created new fault lines. The fall of Assad has presented Turkey with both opportunities and challenges, as it seeks to shape Syria's political future while managing refugee flows and security concerns along its southern border.
The recent rapprochement between Turkey and Egypt signals a potential realignment that could further complicate existing alliances, particularly as both countries seek to fill the power vacuum left by Syria's collapse.
Energy Competition and the EastMed Pipeline Dilemma
The discovery of substantial natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean has intensified competition among regional powers. The EastMed pipeline project, designed to transport gas from Israeli and Cypriot fields to Europe, faces continued uncertainty. The timeline for a proposed 1,240-mile subsea pipeline connecting East Mediterranean gas reserves to Greece via Cyprus and Crete remains uncertain as stakeholders are reviewing its economic feasibility.
Turkey has stated that they are strongly opposed to the pipeline, having signed its own maritime agreement with Libya's former Government of National Accord. The project's viability has been further complicated by changing US support - The US has seemingly abandoned the EastMed pipeline that would have brought gas from the eastern Mediterranean to Europe via Cyprus and Greece.
These energy disputes have taken on broader significance as Europe seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies. The EastMed pipeline is expected to have an initial capacity of 10 billion cubic metres per year (bcm/y), with the potential to expand to 12-20 bcm/y. It will be able to cover a significant portion of the EU's needs and help reduce Russian energy imports by 30-40 % by 2040.
Migration and Security Challenges
The Mediterranean migration crisis has become a tool of geopolitical leverage. Countries like Turkey and Libya have at times used migration flows as bargaining chips in negotiations with European partners. This weaponization of migration has strained EU unity and complicated efforts to develop a coherent Mediterranean policy.
The rise of non-state actors and proxy conflicts has further destabilized the region. Syria's transition from Assad's rule to uncertain governance under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham creates new migration pressures and security concerns that will ripple across the Mediterranean.
The North African Factor and Regional Realignments
Political instability across North Africa has created a power vacuum that various actors are rushing to fill. In Libya, competing foreign interventions have prolonged the conflict, though the dynamics may shift as Russia's capacity for external intervention is tested by the Ukraine war and the loss of its Syrian base.
Israel's ongoing genocidal war on Gaza, its continued operations in southern Lebanon despite a negotiated ceasefire, and its illegal territorial expansion at the expense of Syria have helped erode international law as a guarantor of state sovereignty, peace, and security. These developments, combined with Israel's increasingly hawkish approach to Palestinian territories, are reshaping alliances and creating new tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Russia's Historical Balkans Interest and Current Limitations
Russia's historical interest in the Balkans as a sphere of influence faces new constraints. The Ukraine war has stretched Russian resources and diplomatic capital, limiting Moscow's ability to project power in the region. While many in the region fear a tilt toward Serb nationalists, the new administration's transactionalism could surprise everyone, referring to Trump's approach to Balkan politics.
The loss of the Syrian naval base represents a significant blow to Russia's ability to support allies in the region militarily. However, Moscow maintains cultural and economic ties with Orthodox countries like Serbia, and may seek to leverage these relationships as alternative pathways for influence. In this context, Montenegro's Adriatic coastline has emerged as a particularly strategic prize for Russian and Serbian geopolitical interests, representing potential access to Mediterranean waters. For the EU and NATO, prioritizing Montenegro's deeper integration into European structures and strengthening its NATO commitments has become essential to ensuring the Mediterranean coastline remains secure from Russian influence.
Ukraine War's Mediterranean Implications
The ongoing Ukraine conflict continues to shape Mediterranean dynamics. The two most divisive conflicts in 2024—Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza—emerged from long-standing frictions. That these conflicts suddenly inflamed, signals that the global security order is too fragmented to either maintain or negotiate peace.
Trump's approach to ending the Ukraine war through negotiation rather than military escalation may affect the broader European security architecture. Ukraine has virtually no prospect of defeating Russian forces and restoring its territorial integrity, according to some analysts, suggesting that any negotiated settlement could free up Russian resources for other theaters, potentially including renewed Mediterranean ambitions.
Implications for Regional Stability
These overlapping power struggles have created a fragmented security environment where traditional alliance structures are increasingly inadequate. The erosion of American hegemony in the region, combined with the EU's limited strategic autonomy, has created space for other powers to assert their interests more aggressively.
The risk of miscalculation has increased as multiple powers operate in close proximity with competing objectives. Naval incidents, airspace violations, and proxy conflicts all carry the potential for escalation in an already crowded and contested maritime space.
Looking Forward: Multipolarity and New Frameworks
The Mediterranean is entering a new era of multipolarity that will require fresh approaches to conflict management and cooperation. Syria's political transformation, Russia's strategic setbacks, and Trump's transactional foreign policy approach are all reshaping the regional equation.
Regional powers will need to develop new mechanisms for dialogue and crisis management to prevent competition from spiraling into open conflict. The challenge will be finding ways to accommodate legitimate security and economic interests while maintaining the stability that has allowed Mediterranean civilizations to flourish for millennia.
Trump's emphasis on dealmaking and his willingness to engage directly with authoritarian leaders may create opportunities for conflict resolution, but also risks legitimizing territorial changes achieved through force. The administration's approach to the Balkans, where Europe's 1990s wars can teach the next U.S. president about Ukraine, may provide insights into how Washington will handle similar challenges in the Mediterranean.
The outcome of these power struggles will not only determine the future of the Mediterranean but will also serve as a bellwether for broader shifts in the global order. As traditional hegemonies decline and new powers assert themselves, the ancient crossroads of the Mediterranean may once again become the testing ground for the balance of power in the 21st century.